I had mixed emotions on the morning of Feb 11th 2025 when the news broke that a prisoner swap was underway between Russia and the US. Along with the entire nation, I was elated for the families to have their loved ones returned to US soil. Simultaneously I grieved for the 37 million Ukrainians which I knew at that moment had been betrayed by the Trump administration. I see the prisoner swap as nothing more than an acknowledgement in lieu of signatures to a secrete memorandum of understanding between Russia and America. The terms would have been spelled out in the 90 min phone conversation between Putin and Trump just hours before.
We may never know the full context regarding the 90 min phone call between Putin and Trump, but we can extrapolate to the content by the events that followed beginning with the prisoner exchange.
We clearly find ourselves in a new era of political cooperation. Where the dystopian leaders of Russia and the US find an opportunity of mutual cooperation to achieve their personal and coveted goals. All the while throwing shade for the other to escape repercussions, justifying their actions by transferring blame for the invasion on Zelensky and Ukraine. Trump’s recent comments are now in lock step with Putin’s narrative and have laid bare Americas strategy regarding a negotiated peace deal and the future of Ukraine.
Russia does not conceal its desire to absorb Ukraine back under its sphere of influence. The full-scale invasion on Feb 24th 2022 was not the first time Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum of 1994. Russia first violation of the Memorandum was its military invasion and annexation of the Crimea in 2014. Sadly, there was little international political pressure to oppose Russia’s aggression. Had there been a strong response then, we may not be in our current predicament. The Budapest Agreement, signed by Russia, US, Great Britain and Ukraine, resulted in security assurances for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its inviolability of its borders. In exchange Ukraine would join the NPT (Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons) and relinquish all nuclear weapons to Russia to be dismantled. Russia’s justification for the invasion follows the same reasoning that Hitler used when Germany started their expansion. In this case, invasion is required to protect Russians living within Ukraine’s border.
Nor does Trump hide his desires for retribution at any costs against anyone who speaks out or fails to bend to his will. We have all watched this unfold for minor infractions, how much more would Trumps desire for retribution be for Ukraine and Zelensky after the rebuff of the infamous phone call which resulted in the impeachment proceeding against Trump. If Trump can have his revenge against Zelensky and perhaps gain some mineral and territorial rights at the cost of 37 million faceless people, I have no doubt he would relish the opportunity. By switching the narrative to demonize Zelensky and place impossible concessions for continued US support, Trump has set the stage to justify America walking away from Ukraine, blaming them for failing to agree to his peace plan. Thus, removing a major obstacle for Russia’s successful territorial land grab.
“Revenge is a dish best served cold”
But let us not forget, Trump is the supreme deal maker. By cooperating with Russia, not only could he exact revenge on Zelensky, but he could also secure Russia’s cooperation in his goal to annex Greenland. Interestingly, NATO is not the biggest obstacle for America in a hostile takeover of Greenland by military or economic means. Greenland has a small population and no significate value to other NATO counties including Denmark. It would be hard pressed to see anything other than saber rattling if US moved on Greenland and against a fellow NATO member. Ironically, as it turns out, Trump’s biggest obstacle to Greenland is Russia who would see it as a major security threat. Ukraine might hold the key to unlock Trumps strange obsession with Greenland. A clear example of a “Quid pro quo”
I will get out of your way if you get out of mine.
As Americans we need to self-reflect on our personal and national moral compass. Do we stand by our commitment and the people of Ukraine to defend their nation as agreed to in the Budapest Memorandum, or do we walk away. What is gained and what is lost will be clear in the near future. Trump’s plan to abandon Ukraine in full or in part by placing draconian measures on their economy for continued support will lead us down a familiar road, i.e. Treaty of Versailles. Russia will continue to be a destabilizing actor in Europe. The difference going forward is Russia might have a new ally.