updated 3/8/2025
Current events have moved me to revisit my previous post on Ukraine dated Feb 21st 2025 (1) At that time, I believed Trumps motivation regarding Ukraine was an either/or scenario. Meaning, he would force Ukraine to accept a draconian style mineral agreement, or he would abandon Ukraine in full. I now believe there was always just one option, the plan to abandon Ukraine. Marco Rubio demeanor at the press conference betrays the moment he appears to realize he was just a pawn in the peace negotiations with Russia. The prospect of a possible peace deal and/or a “mineral deal” was just political theater, never meant to come to fruition.
I have long expected Five things to happen in succession. With the completion of each step in the process reinforcing my theory of Trumps true end game, Punish Zelensky and possession of Greenland. My view: the deal regarding Ukraine’s and Greenland’s futures had been agreed to between Trump and Putin during the 90 min call on Feb 12th 2025 and consummated with the prisoner swap in the days after.
Step 1of 5, (completed) The orchestrated attack on President Zelensky at the recent press conference achieved its intended goal. Reminiscent of a gangster movie where the mob boss shakes down a shop owner, “You are not thankful enough for our protection and you disrespected me and my boys”. This international viewed production will be used to blame Ukraine for all their misfortune and justification for Trump to cancel all aid for Ukraine, military and financially. This narrative is a thinly veiled attempt to justify the next step in the plan.
Step 2 of 5, (completed) I expected it to happen at the joint address to congress, but Trump moved in that direction a day earlier. Making the claim that “war hungry Zelensky left him with only one option to bring the war to an end and save millions of Ukraine lives”. He announced that America will immediately pause all financial aid along with all military shipments of equipment and supplies to force Ukraine to accept his peace plan. He will probably demand the return of equipment already delivered. Recently he discontinued intelligence sharing and satellite connections. Forcing Ukraine to fight blind. Rusia seizing the opportunity has unleashed massive drone and missile strikes.
Step 3 of 5 (in process) The predictable pushback he will receive from our allies in the international community will be harsh but ineffective. He will strike out at our NATO allies as ungrateful free loaders, ungrateful for our protection, that America days as being taken for suckers is over. He will make several points, what happens to Ukraine doesn’t present and security risk for America therefor we should not be involved, Ukraine is in their backyard not ours, and finally if they insist on future support of any kind for Ukraine, they will need to go it alone.
He will withdraw support for NATO and move to replace it with support/security agreements between America and individual European countries. Anyone not agreeing to his terms will be threatened with immediate removal of all USA nuclear weapons, equipment and military personnel and any financial assistance.
Step 4of 5, (pending) Russia not NATO is the biggest hurdle for Trumps move on Greenland. Russia views the possible acquisition of Greenland by America an extreme security risk. To smooth this over Trump will sign a non-aggression agreement with Russia. This will have significant ramifications as both counties look toward expansionist policies. It will be presented as one of the greatest steps toward securing lasting peace and security for America and the world. He will demand his coveted Nobel Peace Prize for this.
Step 5of 5, (pending) He jumped ahead of me on this when he announced during the address that we will have Greenland one way or another. In coordination with or with Russia turning a blind eye, Trump will move aggressively on Greenland, financially and militarily if necessary. A weakened NATO will not be in position to come to Greenland’s / Denmark’s aid. Denmark will be left with the option of delivering Greenland to Trump on his terms or face a military invasion. He will declare America’s national security interest for this aggressive action. Russia will do the same by acquiring some or all the former Russian satellites, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and in doing so connecting Kaliningrad with the homeland.
If I’m wrong, it would make for a good spy novel but if I’m right it will be a documentary.
(1) Signed, Sealed and Delivered – The final days of Ukraine
Additional reading, Ukraine, Victory or Appeasement